Introducing the Shuttered Front: Revisiting the high street warning lights

About the report

This new analysis indicates that support for Reform UK is rising in places with declining high streets, predominantly in the Midlands and Northern England. This briefing report shows that:

• Of the 100 places in England with the biggest increases in persistent vacancy rate between 2015-2023, Reform has established or growing support in 44 areas across 39 parliamentary constituencies.
• Should this growth of support for Reform persist, this ‘Shuttered Front’ could be a key electoral battleground at the next general election.

The research revisits data on the ‘High Street Warning Lights’, the 100 locations in England with the greatest increase in persistent vacancy rate between 2015 and 2023, which were originally examined in Power to Change’s report Community powered high streets. The new analysis tracks how people in these areas voted in the 2024 general election and 2025 local elections relative to the rest of England.

The report argues that visible local decline matters to people when they head to the polls, and that now is a critical time for government to back reforms to give people more power to transform their high streets and communities.